Tumut
Indicator: Population
Results for this indicator are also available for [an error occurred while processing this directive]
What the results tell us for Tumut
Tumut Shire has experienced a small decline in growth. According to the 2006 Census there were 11,260 residents in the Shire with an estimated 11,238 in 2007. Since the end of the previous Regional State of the Environment Reporting period, the population of the Shire is estimated to have decreased by -0.5% or 42 persons.
Compared with New South Wales (NSW) as a whole, Tumut Shire has a higher aged population, a higher Indigenous population and a small increase in the proportion of persons born overseas which is similar to the level observed for the State as a whole. Along with many other jurisdictions in Australia, Tumut Shire Council will need to consider the impacts of an ageing population on its economy, and infrastructure.
The composition of households has continued the trend noted in the 2004 report with a further reduction in the number of households comprising couples with children and a consequent increase in couples without children and also lone person households. These are similar to trends observed in other Shire Councils. Tumut’s Social Plan is committed to addressing these issues.
Population is falling in number but aging
The population in Tumut Shire was 11,260 at the 2006 Census (Table 1). Based on the latest available ABS figures (2008), it can be seen that the population fell by 42 persons since 2004. This represents an annual average negative rate of growth of 0.5% for the period, compared with 0.7% average for the Australian Capital Region for the period, and 0.8% for NSW as a whole. Compared with all local government areas across the state, the Shire ranked 109out of 149 for the fastest growth and 118 out of 152 for the largest growth. Figure 1 illustrates the population for the years 2004 to 2007, showing the annual estimated residential population at 30 June for each year.
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Population Change 2004-2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11,280 | 11,232 | 11,260 | 11,238 | -42 (-0.5% p.a.) |
See About the data for Australian Bureau of Statistics comments on years 2001-2007;
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue No. 3218.0 (2008)
Figure 1. Population growth, Tumut Shire, 2004 to 2007
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue No. 3218.0 (2008)
Since the 2004 report the Tumut Shire has experienced a small fall in population. Examining this in the context of the age profile, it can be seen that the trend of decreasing youth noted in the last report has continued in this reporting period, falling 1.6% since 2001 and 2.2% in the 10 year period since 1996. The fall for the prior ten year period (1986-1996) was 4.8%. The “middle” age group also decreased 0.3% (1996-2006) as opposed to the increase of 2.6% in the earlier ten year period. The proportion of the population aged 65+ increased by 2.5% compared with the 2.4% increase during the earlier period. The median age as at 2006 was 40 years in Tumut Shire compared with the state median of 37 years. In 2001 the median was 37 with 35 for the State, and in 1996, 35 and 34 years respectively. Percentages and figures are illustrated in Table 2.
These trends are similar to those evident in other Shires in the Region and will have resultant impacts on the Shire’s healthcare, social, economic and transport needs into the future.
| Age | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | % | No. | % | |
| <15 years | 2,638 | 23.5 | 2,572 | 22.9 | 2,278 | 21.3 |
| 15–64 years | 7,063 | 62.9 | 7,078 | 63.0 | 6,702 | 62.6 |
| 65+ years | 1,526 | 13.6 | 1,578 | 14.1 | 1,730 | 16.1 |
| Totals | 11,227 | 100 | 11,228 | 100 | 10,710 | 100 |
See About the data for Australian Bureau of Statistics comments on this table
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Time Series Profile Catalogue No. 2003.0
Ethnicity and diversity
Gender
Tumut Shire’s population as at the 2006 Census was split 50.31% male and 49.69% female. Compared with the gender distribution for NSW (49.3% males to 50.7% females), the Shire’s population reverses the trend observed in the state and other Shire Councils. See Figures 2 and 3 for a comparison of the gender and age distribution for the Shire and NSW respectively.
Figure 2. Age and sex distribution, Tumut Shire, 2006
Source of data: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Time Series Profile Catalogue No. 2003.0
Figure 3. Age and sex distribution, NSW, 2006
Source of data: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Time Series Profile Catalogue No. 2003.0
Origins
In 2006 89.1% of Tumut Shire’s non-Indigenous residents were born in Australia, compared with 88.8% in 2001 and 89.6% in 1996 (Table 3). By comparison, NSW has experienced a drop of about 1% between Censuses (1996, 2001, 2006). The proportion of indigenous population for the Shire has increased since the last report to 3.4% from 2.9% in 2001 and 2.6% in 1996. This remains a higher percentage compared with the rest of the state (2.2%) in 2006. The “Born overseas” group has reduced by 0.8% to 7.5% in the 2006 Census from 8.3% in 2001 compared with the gradual increase (0.65%) in proportion experienced by NSW as a whole.
| Origin | 1996 Census | 2001 Census | 2006 Census | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | % | No. | % | |
| Indigenous persons | 290 | 2.6 | 321 | 2.9 | 356 | 3.4 |
| Born in Australia | 9,999 | 89.6 | 9,710 | 88.8 | 9,279 | 89.1 |
| Born overseas (a) | 873 | 7.8 | 911 | 8.3 | 780 | 7.5 |
| Total | 11,162 | 100 | 10,942 | 100 | 10,415 | 100 |
See About the data for notes on (a)
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Time Series Profile Catalogue No. 2003.0
Households and family type
In 2006, 66.2% of Shire residents lived in one-family households consisting of 28.6% couples with children, 28.2% couples with no children and 8.8% were one-parent families. About 26.9% of the population consisted of lone person households. (Table 4).
The group with the most significant percentage drop was the “Couple family with children” group, having fallen by 6% since the 1996 Census whereas the percentage of households occupied by “Lone person households” rose by 2.2%. The “Couple family without children” group also rose by 1.1%. This may reflect choices couples are making regarding having children, either choosing to delay childbirth or not have children altogether. The Social Plan should explore these patterns further and identify whether there are emerging social planning issues for the Shire.
| Household composition | 1996 Census | 2001 Census | 2006 Census | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwellings | % | Dwellings | % | Dwellings | % | |
| One family household: | ||||||
| Couple family with children | 1,473 | 34.6 | 1,360 | 31.5 | 1,253 | 28.6 |
| Couple family without children | 1,122 | 26.4 | 1,170 | 27.1 | 1,237 | 28.2 |
| One parent family | 414 | 9.7 | 371 | 8.6 | 387 | 8.8 |
| Other family | 42 | 1.0 | 39 | 0.9 | 27 | 0.6 |
| Total | 3,051 | 71.7 | 2,940 | 68.2 | 2,904 | 66.2 |
| Miscellaneous households: | ||||||
| Group household | 96 | 2.3 | 78 | 1.8 | 75 | 1.7 |
| Lone person household | 994 | 23.4 | 1,064 | 24.7 | 1,181 | 26.9 |
| Other household (c) | 111 | 2.6 | 228 | 5.3 | 224 | 5.1 |
| Total | 4,252 | 100 | 4,310 | 100 | 4,384 | 100 |
For notes on (a), (b) and (c) see About the data
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Time Series Profile, Catalogue No. 2003.0
Where people are working and what they are earning
The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is the highest employer as at the 2006 census at 16.4% although falling 1.4% since the 2001 census. This fall is attributable to the affects of the drought in this region. The state as a whole also experienced a fall in employment in this sector of 0.7%.
The manufacturing sector is the next highest employer with 14.8% in 2006, although also falling 2.4% since 2001 compared with a 1.4% decrease for the state as a whole.
The health care and social assistance sector represented 8.8% of the workforce in 2006 which is also the sector with the largest increase (2%) since 2001.
| Industry of employment (a) | 1996 Census | 2001 Census | 2006 Census | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persons | % | Persons | % | Persons | % | |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 970 | 20.6 | 859 | 17.8 | 767 | 16.4 |
| Mining | 7 | 0.1 | 9 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Manufacturing | 728 | 15.5 | 829 | 17.2 | 692 | 14.8 |
| Electricity, gas, water and waste services | 189 | 4.0 | 119 | 2.5 | 131 | 2.8 |
| Construction | 194 | 4.1 | 363 | 7.5 | 304 | 6.5 |
| Wholesale trade | 258 | 5.5 | 247 | 5.1 | 181 | 3.9 |
| Retail trade | 421 | 8.9 | 490 | 10.2 | 483 | 10.3 |
| Accommodation and food services | 309 | 6.6 | 301 | 6.2 | 300 | 6.4 |
| Transport, postal and warehousing | 154 | 3.3 | 178 | 3.7 | 203 | 4.3 |
| Information media and telecommunications | 47 | 1.0 | 27 | 0.6 | 28 | 0.6 |
| Financial and insurance services | 73 | 1.5 | 57 | 1.2 | 67 | 1.4 |
| Rental, hiring and real estate services | 37 | 0.8 | 47 | 1.0 | 39 | 0.8 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | 105 | 2.2 | 114 | 2.4 | 141 | 3.0 |
| Administrative and support services | 74 | 1.6 | 110 | 2.3 | 114 | 2.4 |
| Public administration and safety | 204 | 4.3 | 161 | 3.3 | 194 | 4.1 |
| Education and training | 309 | 6.6 | 279 | 5.8 | 315 | 6.7 |
| Health care and social assistance | 303 | 6.4 | 327 | 6.8 | 413 | 8.8 |
| Arts and recreation services | 38 | 0.8 | 42 | 0.9 | 49 | 1.1 |
| Other services | 135 | 2.9 | 144 | 3.0 | 136 | 2.9 |
| Inadequately described/Not stated | 149 | 3.2 | 112 | 2.3 | 114 | 2.4 |
| Total | 4,704 | 100 | 4,815 | 100 | 4,671 | 100 |
For notes on (a) see About the data;
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Time Series Profile, Catalogue No. 2003.0
The median individual income for the Tumut Shire as at 30 June 2006 was $393 per week compared with $460 for NSW, and the median household income was $782 ($1,034 for the state).
About the data
Data for this indicator were sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
Data for Table 1— Estimated Residential Population Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue No. 3218.0. Years 2004-2006 are preliminary rebased figures, whereas 2007 figures are preliminary. The figure for 2004 was only preliminary at the time of writing the 2004 State of the Environment Report, therefore it has now been revised. As explained in the Extract from Explanatory Notes, Australian Bureau of Statistics—Catalogue No. 3218.0 (2008), ‘To meet the conflicting demands for accuracy and timeliness there are several versions of sub-state/territory population estimates. Preliminary estimates are normally available nine months after the reference date (i.e. March), revised estimates twelve months later and rebased and final estimates after the following census.' Estimated population is preliminary rebased for 2002 to 2006, based on results of the 2006 Census of Population and Housing, and preliminary for 2007. At the time of writing, final 2006 Census-based estimates for 2002 to 2006, together with the first revision of 2007 were not yet available.
Data for Table 2 – Selected Person Characteristics: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Time Series Profile (T01), Catalogue No. 2003.0, Commonwealth of Australia, 2006.
Data for Table 3 – Selected Person Characteristics: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Time Series Profile (T01), Catalogue No. 2003.0, Commonwealth of Australia, 2006, (a) Includes 'Australian External Territories', 'Inadequately described', 'At sea' and 'Not elsewhere classified'.
Data for Table 4 —Dwelling Structure by Household Composition and Family Composition: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Time Series Profile (T14), Catalogue No. 2003.0, Commonwealth of Australia, 2006 (a) The 'Household Composition' variable replaced 'Household Type', which was used in 1996 and 2001; (b) The 'Family Composition' variable replaced 'Family Type', which was used in 1996 and 2001; (c) Comprises 'Visitors only' and 'Other not classifiable' households.
Data for Table 5 — Industry types in Tumut Shire: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Time Series Profile (T25), Catalogue No. 2003.0, Commonwealth of Australia, 2006. (a) Industry of employment was coded to the 2006 Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) edition. This has replaced the 1993 ANZSIC edition. Data for 1996 and 2001 have been concorded.
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2007) Regional Population Growth, Australia, 1996 to 2006, Catalogue No. 3218.0 — ‘Estimated Residential Population—30 June ', Commonwealth of Australia, http://www.abs.gov.au/
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008) Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2006-07, Catalogue No. 3218.0 — ‘Population Estimates by Local Government Area, 2001 to 2007 — 30 June', Commonwealth of Australia, http://www.abs.gov.au/
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006) Time Series Profile, Catalogue No. 2003.0, Commonwealth of Australia, http://www.abs.gov.au/
